2024 Recession Probability. Goldman sachs has cut its probability forecast for a u.s. The conference board predicts a 96 percent likelihood of a recession in the us within the next 12 months, based on our probability model.
High inflation, rising interest rates, shaky economic activity and volatile markets have raised the probability that the u.s. Graph and download economic data for nber based recession indicators for the united states from the period following the peak through the trough (usrec).